Not long ago someone asked me about Lake Turnover and quite honestly I did not have a good scientific answer for them. However there was a very good article in our Grindstone Lake Association newsletter which explains this affect in language that even I can understand. I have taken the liberty to paraphrase some of what was written.
Essentially “Turnover” is the term used to describe the mixing of the contents of the entire lake.
Reminds me of my stomach after dinner last night! Not long after ice-out, in early spring, winds create the wave action needed for considerable turbulence all the way to the bottom of the lake. At that time of year the water temperature and the water density is fairly uniform throughout the lake making it easier for the mixing to happen.
As springtime progresses and the spring winds decrease, (well, most of the time!) the sun’s radiation eventually causes the surface water of the lake to become significantly warmer (and less dense) as compared to the deeper water. The point where the temperature difference between the warmer and colder water is greatest is called the “thermocline”. Now there’s a word to put into your everyday vocabulary!
In many lakes, the thermocline is between 10 to 20 feet below the surface of the lake. Because of the density difference between cold and warm water, the thermocline acts like a barrier to prevent further mixing of the lake’s water.
As we approach fall the surface water cools to the point where its temperature and density once again is similar to the waters below resulting in the same mixing process that occurred in the spring. And yes we are beginning to see signs of fall and cooling, sunsets are much earlier!
Water is most dense at around 39 degrees Fahrenheit; because of this the lake water in the winter is actually warmer at the bottom of the lake as compared to the water immediately below the surface of the ice which is just above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Essentially the warmer water of the lake shifts to the bottom in the winter and to the top in the summer. And there you have it!
Local News: Don’t forget that the Seeley Lions Club is hosting the Pre-Fat off road bicycle race this weekend and Rib and Brew Fest is next weekend. Come up and take in the fun!
Life is good….Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev & Realty
Hayward, WI
715-699-4040
nathan@cheqnet.net
http://www.garynathan.com/
http://www.haywardwaterfront.com/
Friday, August 22, 2008
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Market Timing
RISMedia, a real estate news source, recently reported that at the top of the most frequently asked questions list is, “How will we know when the market has bottomed out and we should buy a home”? We have experienced that question many times and I concur it is on the front of most buyer brain lobes. Buyers want to buy right at the bottom; who wouldn’t?
The answer does not appear to be all that difficult and I agree with the report in that there are two major factors that one should consider and watch. When you see an increase in listed sales and sold prices and a decline in inventory you can be reasonably sure we have hit bottom, right?
Nationally it appears we have started to see a decline in listing volume; it is however much more difficult to gauge the sold price data. Sale prices will be affected by some of the discounted foreclosure sales; hence lower average prices.
Locally we have been far less affected by foreclosures but inventory remains high compared to three years ago. Buyers still have, in my opinion, a great deal of opportunity because of listed volume and interest rates that continue to be historically low. That all could change if rates increase and inventories shrink.
Personally I was never any good at stock market timing, too many variables! Timing the real estate market isn’t that easy. It's made up of more than inventories, sales prices and sales volume. The overall economy and other factors such as buyer confidence, location, population growth, job growth and more, has an affect on the real estate market. Oh, and don’t forget about the fact that this is an election year. What’s your opinion; I’d like to hear from you?
On the home front - we've had just outstanding summer weather. Each morning when I leave the lake to go to work I wonder why? Go back to the beginning of the above paragraph….I never was good at market timing, hence I work. Thank God I am able!
Life is Good…..Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
cell 715.699.4040
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
nathan@garynathan.com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
The answer does not appear to be all that difficult and I agree with the report in that there are two major factors that one should consider and watch. When you see an increase in listed sales and sold prices and a decline in inventory you can be reasonably sure we have hit bottom, right?
Nationally it appears we have started to see a decline in listing volume; it is however much more difficult to gauge the sold price data. Sale prices will be affected by some of the discounted foreclosure sales; hence lower average prices.
Locally we have been far less affected by foreclosures but inventory remains high compared to three years ago. Buyers still have, in my opinion, a great deal of opportunity because of listed volume and interest rates that continue to be historically low. That all could change if rates increase and inventories shrink.
Personally I was never any good at stock market timing, too many variables! Timing the real estate market isn’t that easy. It's made up of more than inventories, sales prices and sales volume. The overall economy and other factors such as buyer confidence, location, population growth, job growth and more, has an affect on the real estate market. Oh, and don’t forget about the fact that this is an election year. What’s your opinion; I’d like to hear from you?
On the home front - we've had just outstanding summer weather. Each morning when I leave the lake to go to work I wonder why? Go back to the beginning of the above paragraph….I never was good at market timing, hence I work. Thank God I am able!
Life is Good…..Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
cell 715.699.4040
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
nathan@garynathan.com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
Friday, August 01, 2008
Housing Stimulus
Greetings from sunny, warm Hayward!
President Bush just signed into law the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. This is a major action that certainly affects consumers, REALTORS®, and our nation. As a result homebuyers will soon have access to more affordable financing, and first-time homebuyers (those who have not owned a home for three years) will receive a tax-credit to help them enter the market. Some may say "too little too late" but I believe we needed the action.
H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:
- GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500.
- FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program.
- Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $7500 tax credit that would be would be available for any qualified purchase between April 8, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The credit is repayable over 15 years (making it, in effect, an interest-free loan).
- FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans.
- Seller-funded downpayment assistance programs VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.
- Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year.
- GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.
- Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.
- National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs.
- CDBG Funding – Provides $4 billion in neighborhood revitalization funds for communities to purchase foreclosed homes.
- LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.
Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate.
For more information, visit http://www.realtor.org/governmentaffairs.
The weather has been superb and Sawyer County has been buzzing with tourists and second home owners. Come on up and see us! Enjoy.....Life is Good!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev & Realty
Hayward, WI
nathan@cheqnet.net
http://www.garynathan.com/
http://www.haywardwaterfront.com/
President Bush just signed into law the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. This is a major action that certainly affects consumers, REALTORS®, and our nation. As a result homebuyers will soon have access to more affordable financing, and first-time homebuyers (those who have not owned a home for three years) will receive a tax-credit to help them enter the market. Some may say "too little too late" but I believe we needed the action.
H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:
- GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500.
- FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program.
- Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $7500 tax credit that would be would be available for any qualified purchase between April 8, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The credit is repayable over 15 years (making it, in effect, an interest-free loan).
- FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans.
- Seller-funded downpayment assistance programs VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.
- Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year.
- GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.
- Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.
- National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs.
- CDBG Funding – Provides $4 billion in neighborhood revitalization funds for communities to purchase foreclosed homes.
- LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.
Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate.
For more information, visit http://www.realtor.org/governmentaffairs.
The weather has been superb and Sawyer County has been buzzing with tourists and second home owners. Come on up and see us! Enjoy.....Life is Good!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev & Realty
Hayward, WI
nathan@cheqnet.net
http://www.garynathan.com/
http://www.haywardwaterfront.com/
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Sunset on Grindstone Lake!
In my last Blog I wrote that this has been a very busy quarter. Well, it has continued and for that we are most thankful.To take a break, weather permitting, we try to get out on the lake. This past week Shari & I had the pleasure of watching a spectacular sunset from the middle of the lake. Sunsets along with wonderful sunrises are special times for us; it’s what so many people are looking for when they search for their “escape cabin” in the Hayward area. We feel truly blessed to have the opportunity to work and live where we can enjoy such beauty. We wish the same for you!
Come on up and enjoy all that the area has to offer. If you need an events calendar just let me know and I will email, mail or fax you a copy. Life is Good…..Enjoy!
Friday, June 06, 2008
Blessing and Curse
The past few weeks have been both a blessing and a curse; mostly a blessing. Forgive me for not blogging for two weeks; actually that is probably a blessing. It has been the busiest month I can remember in my years of real estate.
Now before you quit reading I promise to keep this short; it's Friday and I want to actually leave by 5:00 pm for the first day in I don't know how long...that would be a curse.
There is a bunch of action; not just people looking but people buying....yes buying despite all the stuff you hear otherwise. I'm not one to boast but I must tell you that this past quarter will probably be a record for us; that would be a blessing.
For those of you who are kind enough to list your property with us and have not received an Offer to Purchase this week I sincerely apologize. BUT, keep the faith because Hayward real estate continues to sell and why not? This is the greatest place in the world to live and we invite you to come and see us....soon!
More blessings than curses! Life is Good....Enjoy!
My boat is in and the lake beckons.
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
715-699-4040
nathan@garynathan.com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
Now before you quit reading I promise to keep this short; it's Friday and I want to actually leave by 5:00 pm for the first day in I don't know how long...that would be a curse.
There is a bunch of action; not just people looking but people buying....yes buying despite all the stuff you hear otherwise. I'm not one to boast but I must tell you that this past quarter will probably be a record for us; that would be a blessing.
For those of you who are kind enough to list your property with us and have not received an Offer to Purchase this week I sincerely apologize. BUT, keep the faith because Hayward real estate continues to sell and why not? This is the greatest place in the world to live and we invite you to come and see us....soon!
More blessings than curses! Life is Good....Enjoy!
My boat is in and the lake beckons.
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
715-699-4040
nathan@garynathan.com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
Thursday, May 15, 2008
The Barn...
This is a great story we found circulating on the Internet.
A recently retired New York man wanted to use his retirement funds wisely, decided to buy a home and a few acres in Portugal . The modest farmhouse had been vacant for 15 years; the owner and wife both had died, and there were no heirs. The estate was being sold to pay back taxes.
There had been several lookers, but the large barn had steel doors, and they had been welded shut. No one wanted to go to the extra expense to see what was in the barn, and it wasn't complimentary to the property anyway... so, no one made an offer on the place.
The New York gentleman bought it as is, paying just over half of the property's worth; moved in, and set about to access the barn... curiosity was killing him. So, he and his wife bought a generator and a couple of grinders... and cut thru the welds. What was in the barn...?
A recently retired New York man wanted to use his retirement funds wisely, decided to buy a home and a few acres in Portugal . The modest farmhouse had been vacant for 15 years; the owner and wife both had died, and there were no heirs. The estate was being sold to pay back taxes.
There had been several lookers, but the large barn had steel doors, and they had been welded shut. No one wanted to go to the extra expense to see what was in the barn, and it wasn't complimentary to the property anyway... so, no one made an offer on the place.
The New York gentleman bought it as is, paying just over half of the property's worth; moved in, and set about to access the barn... curiosity was killing him. So, he and his wife bought a generator and a couple of grinders... and cut thru the welds. What was in the barn...?
The doors were welded shut, but a grinder took care of that.
A warehouse full of vintage high performance cars!!!
Aston Martin, Opel GT, Lotus Elan FHC, Lotus Super Seven Series IV, Lotus Elan DHC, Porsche 356, Austin Healey Sprite MkII, Volvo PV 544, Ford Y, Giulietta Sprint, Giulia Sprint Speciale (SS), Nash Metropolitan, Alfa Giulietta, Lotus Europa, another Lotus Elan FHC, Matra Djet, Lancia Flaminia Coupé, BMW V8, Formula racers, Chryslers, Mercedes, Austin A30, Formula racers, Chryslers, Mercedes, Austin A30… and the list goes on.Amazing…
Total value of all vehicles… over 35 Million!
The man and his wife had full title to the complete lot of vehicles. They're having a great retirement!
So you see real estate really is a good investment....sometimes a "great" investment.
Life is Good. Enjoy!
Gary Nathan & Amanda Mavis
Friday, May 09, 2008
Remodeling for Resale
Many of our clients ask what the return will be on certain remodeling projects. There is some good information from a Value Report published by the National Association of Realtors. You need to understand what makes a good home investment, whether you are buying, selling or remodeling.
One of the best returns for your money is bathroom and kitchen remodeling projects. “Many homeowners who complete mid-range bathroom remodels can expect to make money; the cost on a national average for this project is $10,499, and the return is $10,727, or 102.2 percent. On average, major mid-range kitchen remodels cost $43,862 and return $39,920 or 91 percent of the costs to remodel”. Master suites don’t fair as well; an approximate return of 80.1 percent of the remodeling expense.” Personally, I'd put the money in the kitchen, that's where most of us spend a great deal of time entertaining anyway!
In the Midwest, however, the same kitchen and basement projects return only 85 and 73 percent, respectively. Midwest buyers appreciate homes with updated siding; mid-range and upscale siding replacements return 96 and 98 percent of the project costs, respectively. Siding replacement projects fared well at resale in all four regions, likely because new siding is a relatively inexpensive way to update and refresh a home's curb appeal.”
In the end, you need to consider your own needs and desires as well as those of the home's future owner. Ultimately, the best reason for a remodel is so that you can enjoy it!
If you wish to read the full report go to www.REALTOR.org/realtormag.
It is absolutely beautiful today & I'm heading out to show “lake property”. Have a great weekend and Enjoy…Life is Good!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI
715-699-4040
nathan@cheqnet.net
http://www.garynathan.com/
http://www.haywardwaterfront.com/
One of the best returns for your money is bathroom and kitchen remodeling projects. “Many homeowners who complete mid-range bathroom remodels can expect to make money; the cost on a national average for this project is $10,499, and the return is $10,727, or 102.2 percent. On average, major mid-range kitchen remodels cost $43,862 and return $39,920 or 91 percent of the costs to remodel”. Master suites don’t fair as well; an approximate return of 80.1 percent of the remodeling expense.” Personally, I'd put the money in the kitchen, that's where most of us spend a great deal of time entertaining anyway!
In the Midwest, however, the same kitchen and basement projects return only 85 and 73 percent, respectively. Midwest buyers appreciate homes with updated siding; mid-range and upscale siding replacements return 96 and 98 percent of the project costs, respectively. Siding replacement projects fared well at resale in all four regions, likely because new siding is a relatively inexpensive way to update and refresh a home's curb appeal.”
In the end, you need to consider your own needs and desires as well as those of the home's future owner. Ultimately, the best reason for a remodel is so that you can enjoy it!
If you wish to read the full report go to www.REALTOR.org/realtormag.
It is absolutely beautiful today & I'm heading out to show “lake property”. Have a great weekend and Enjoy…Life is Good!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI
715-699-4040
nathan@cheqnet.net
http://www.garynathan.com/
http://www.haywardwaterfront.com/
Friday, May 02, 2008
Quiet Lakes
Sawyer County has an abundance of lakes and there is some neat history and information on the "Quiet Lakes" which are Lost Land Lake, Teal Lake and Ghost Lake; just 15 miles northeast of Hayward on Hwy 77.
According to the Quiet Lakes web site Lost Land Lake, was missing from early logger maps. Teal Lake was originally called Tea Lake. Did you know that Ghost Lake's name was derived from an over-served logger who thought the wild wandering flowage disappeared in a ghostly fog.? The drive to the Quiet Lakes literally "quiets" the mind and the tour throughout this lake region in the heart of the Chequamegon National Forest is one of the most peaceful settings you will find.
In 1962 a speed limit of 10 mph was enacted prohibiting water skiing and jet skiing for that matter. Zoning requires 200' of lake shore per home rather than the usual 100' on other prime lakes. We can thank the folks who lived there and now populate the lakes for actively protecting this unspoiled environment.
Chris and Cindi from our office live on Teal Lake; they are an easy touch for a ride on their pontoon!
Want to learn more? Go to www.quietlakes.com; it's worth the peruse.
The ice is out on many lakes so come on up! Good luck to all you opening day fisherman....Life Is Good....Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
715-634-2110
nathan@garynathan.com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
According to the Quiet Lakes web site Lost Land Lake, was missing from early logger maps. Teal Lake was originally called Tea Lake. Did you know that Ghost Lake's name was derived from an over-served logger who thought the wild wandering flowage disappeared in a ghostly fog.? The drive to the Quiet Lakes literally "quiets" the mind and the tour throughout this lake region in the heart of the Chequamegon National Forest is one of the most peaceful settings you will find.
In 1962 a speed limit of 10 mph was enacted prohibiting water skiing and jet skiing for that matter. Zoning requires 200' of lake shore per home rather than the usual 100' on other prime lakes. We can thank the folks who lived there and now populate the lakes for actively protecting this unspoiled environment.
Chris and Cindi from our office live on Teal Lake; they are an easy touch for a ride on their pontoon!
Want to learn more? Go to www.quietlakes.com; it's worth the peruse.
The ice is out on many lakes so come on up! Good luck to all you opening day fisherman....Life Is Good....Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
715-634-2110
nathan@garynathan.com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
Friday, April 25, 2008
What's Hot, What's Not
Buyers are poled each year by several different groups to see what they want when it comes to buying a home. So whether you are a buyer or a seller please read on.
Buyers are becoming much more aware of how a home impacts the earth. So smaller more energy efficient homes are very appealing to savvy buyers.
Appliances that are concealed with a wood-print cover or behind hinged doors. Storage areas in the garage that have the cabinet look with pull out racks or shelves. Whirlpools are out and freestanding tubs or "bath thrones" are the new "must-haves" as a bathroom centerpiece. Speaking of bathrooms, the latest trend is bathroom suites that include flat-screen TVs, a mini fridge and cappuccino maker. Who needs the rest of the home?
Outdoor living is huge, especially here in the north woods. Massive outdoor fireplaces, fire-ring patio areas, outdoor kitchens and even under-patio heating is particularly appealing to buyers.
Have a pet and do you like to keep it clean? Pet bathtubs and showers in the mud room or garage are a big attraction for pet owners.
What's out? High ceilings in small rooms - waste of space. Tiny balconies and lofts that accommodate one chair and a lamp. Small living rooms that look more like a hallway off the kitchen than a space in which to entertain. And finally, one sink in the master bath suite is an absolute NO! No!. Trust me on this last one; when 70% of the time the decision is being made by the "better-looking-sex" you had better hope the house you are showing has two sinks in the master suite.
Have a great weekend....it's raining here which will quicken the ice melt and oh it is so good to see green grass!
Life is good....Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
715-699-4040
nathan@garynathan .com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
Buyers are becoming much more aware of how a home impacts the earth. So smaller more energy efficient homes are very appealing to savvy buyers.
Appliances that are concealed with a wood-print cover or behind hinged doors. Storage areas in the garage that have the cabinet look with pull out racks or shelves. Whirlpools are out and freestanding tubs or "bath thrones" are the new "must-haves" as a bathroom centerpiece. Speaking of bathrooms, the latest trend is bathroom suites that include flat-screen TVs, a mini fridge and cappuccino maker. Who needs the rest of the home?
Outdoor living is huge, especially here in the north woods. Massive outdoor fireplaces, fire-ring patio areas, outdoor kitchens and even under-patio heating is particularly appealing to buyers.
Have a pet and do you like to keep it clean? Pet bathtubs and showers in the mud room or garage are a big attraction for pet owners.
What's out? High ceilings in small rooms - waste of space. Tiny balconies and lofts that accommodate one chair and a lamp. Small living rooms that look more like a hallway off the kitchen than a space in which to entertain. And finally, one sink in the master bath suite is an absolute NO! No!. Trust me on this last one; when 70% of the time the decision is being made by the "better-looking-sex" you had better hope the house you are showing has two sinks in the master suite.
Have a great weekend....it's raining here which will quicken the ice melt and oh it is so good to see green grass!
Life is good....Enjoy!
Gary Nathan
Amanda Mavis
Woodland Dev. & Realty
Hayward, WI 54843
715-699-4040
nathan@garynathan .com
www.garynathan.com
www.haywardwaterfront.com
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Housing Headline Blues
There has been a very interesting revelation regarding the negative housing data we have all seen on an almost daily basis. The next time you see any housing statistics presented, check to see if the statistics are provided by the S&P Case Shiller Index (chances are, they will be). This index surveys only 20 markets in 8 states – most of which are in California and Florida and other down markets. Conversely, the NAR (National Association of Realtors) survey spans 150 metro markets and uses median prices only. The third previously used survey, the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) uses 287 local markets in its index, yet, the Case Shiller index with only 20 markets is getting most of the media coverage. Why? Most likely because negative headlines sell.
Consider the following: OFHEO data for 2007 indicates the average price in America was down 3/10ths of a percent based on data from the 287 markets mentioned above. NAR data showed a 1.4% median price decline. The 2007 data gathered from a 4th source, Realogy (the largest real estate brokerage in the world with over 300,000 agents) indicates a 1% decline for 2007. OFHEO, NAR and Realogy are all fairly close with the results of their data gathering. What did Case Shiller’s 20 market data report? A whopping 8.9% decline for the “overall” U.S. market in 2007.
How could there be such a huge disparity? A recent article from Realogy illustrates the methodology Case Shiller’s uses for measuring the New York City market. Shiller claims that New York City prices fell 5.6% in 2007. Shiller decided not to use condominium and cooperative sales in Manhattan in his data which constitute 1/3 of overall New York City sales and 99% of Manhattan sales. Manhattan based Miller Samuel Inc. tracked a 2007 price increase of 17.6% for Manhattan. Why did Shiller exclude the data that constitutes 1/3 of the New York City metropolitan area? Could part of the reason be because of his side business? Consider the following:
In a recent article by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the NAR, Yun states “Dr. Shiller, a Yale Professor, has a side business in Chicago. His index is used at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for hedging housing futures values. The more hedging of the bets that occur, the more profits go into Dr. Shiller’s bank account. And more hedging of the bets will take place if people believe there will be a crash in housing values. So, naturally he has a financial incentive to “scare” the market.” This side business may or may not be the reason Dr. Shiller uses such limited and selected data for his index. The disturbing part is that the Case Shiller index is being used by most media outlets to represent what is happening in the overall U.S. housing market.
What is the reality? Shiller claims that “Wherever you look, things look bleak” and that “We are in a historic housing bust right now”. OFHEO reports that 70% of the markets nationwide are not falling but actually rising. In Sawyer County, the last two reported quarters (Q3 and Q4, 2007) showed an increase in median price of over 14% and a 19% increase in the number of homes sold as compared to 2006 Q3 and Q4.
Reality is good thing.
Chris McGrath
Woodland Developments & Realty
715.634.2110
woodlanddevrealty.com
Consider the following: OFHEO data for 2007 indicates the average price in America was down 3/10ths of a percent based on data from the 287 markets mentioned above. NAR data showed a 1.4% median price decline. The 2007 data gathered from a 4th source, Realogy (the largest real estate brokerage in the world with over 300,000 agents) indicates a 1% decline for 2007. OFHEO, NAR and Realogy are all fairly close with the results of their data gathering. What did Case Shiller’s 20 market data report? A whopping 8.9% decline for the “overall” U.S. market in 2007.
How could there be such a huge disparity? A recent article from Realogy illustrates the methodology Case Shiller’s uses for measuring the New York City market. Shiller claims that New York City prices fell 5.6% in 2007. Shiller decided not to use condominium and cooperative sales in Manhattan in his data which constitute 1/3 of overall New York City sales and 99% of Manhattan sales. Manhattan based Miller Samuel Inc. tracked a 2007 price increase of 17.6% for Manhattan. Why did Shiller exclude the data that constitutes 1/3 of the New York City metropolitan area? Could part of the reason be because of his side business? Consider the following:
In a recent article by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the NAR, Yun states “Dr. Shiller, a Yale Professor, has a side business in Chicago. His index is used at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for hedging housing futures values. The more hedging of the bets that occur, the more profits go into Dr. Shiller’s bank account. And more hedging of the bets will take place if people believe there will be a crash in housing values. So, naturally he has a financial incentive to “scare” the market.” This side business may or may not be the reason Dr. Shiller uses such limited and selected data for his index. The disturbing part is that the Case Shiller index is being used by most media outlets to represent what is happening in the overall U.S. housing market.
What is the reality? Shiller claims that “Wherever you look, things look bleak” and that “We are in a historic housing bust right now”. OFHEO reports that 70% of the markets nationwide are not falling but actually rising. In Sawyer County, the last two reported quarters (Q3 and Q4, 2007) showed an increase in median price of over 14% and a 19% increase in the number of homes sold as compared to 2006 Q3 and Q4.
Reality is good thing.
Chris McGrath
Woodland Developments & Realty
715.634.2110
woodlanddevrealty.com
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