There has been a very interesting revelation regarding the negative housing data we have all seen on an almost daily basis. The next time you see any housing statistics presented, check to see if the statistics are provided by the S&P Case Shiller Index (chances are, they will be). This index surveys only 20 markets in 8 states – most of which are in California and Florida and other down markets. Conversely, the NAR (National Association of Realtors) survey spans 150 metro markets and uses median prices only. The third previously used survey, the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) uses 287 local markets in its index, yet, the Case Shiller index with only 20 markets is getting most of the media coverage. Why? Most likely because negative headlines sell.
Consider the following: OFHEO data for 2007 indicates the average price in America was down 3/10ths of a percent based on data from the 287 markets mentioned above. NAR data showed a 1.4% median price decline. The 2007 data gathered from a 4th source, Realogy (the largest real estate brokerage in the world with over 300,000 agents) indicates a 1% decline for 2007. OFHEO, NAR and Realogy are all fairly close with the results of their data gathering. What did Case Shiller’s 20 market data report? A whopping 8.9% decline for the “overall” U.S. market in 2007.
How could there be such a huge disparity? A recent article from Realogy illustrates the methodology Case Shiller’s uses for measuring the New York City market. Shiller claims that New York City prices fell 5.6% in 2007. Shiller decided not to use condominium and cooperative sales in Manhattan in his data which constitute 1/3 of overall New York City sales and 99% of Manhattan sales. Manhattan based Miller Samuel Inc. tracked a 2007 price increase of 17.6% for Manhattan. Why did Shiller exclude the data that constitutes 1/3 of the New York City metropolitan area? Could part of the reason be because of his side business? Consider the following:
In a recent article by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the NAR, Yun states “Dr. Shiller, a Yale Professor, has a side business in Chicago. His index is used at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for hedging housing futures values. The more hedging of the bets that occur, the more profits go into Dr. Shiller’s bank account. And more hedging of the bets will take place if people believe there will be a crash in housing values. So, naturally he has a financial incentive to “scare” the market.” This side business may or may not be the reason Dr. Shiller uses such limited and selected data for his index. The disturbing part is that the Case Shiller index is being used by most media outlets to represent what is happening in the overall U.S. housing market.
What is the reality? Shiller claims that “Wherever you look, things look bleak” and that “We are in a historic housing bust right now”. OFHEO reports that 70% of the markets nationwide are not falling but actually rising. In Sawyer County, the last two reported quarters (Q3 and Q4, 2007) showed an increase in median price of over 14% and a 19% increase in the number of homes sold as compared to 2006 Q3 and Q4.
Reality is good thing.
Chris McGrath
Woodland Developments & Realty
715.634.2110
woodlanddevrealty.com
